Swine flu raises travel concerns in Europe

[travelpunk]

Swine flu cases growing...

MADRID – EU health officials urged Europeans on Monday to postpone nonessential travel to the United States and Mexico because of the swine flu virus, and Spanish health officials confirmed the first case outside North America.

Russia, Hong Kong and Taiwan said they would quarantine visitors showing symptoms of the virus amid a surging global concern about a possible pandemic.

World stock markets fell as investors worried that the deadly outbreak could go global and derail any global economic recovery. Airlines took the brunt of the selling.

The virus was suspected in up to 103 deaths in Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak with more than 1,600 cases suspected, while 20 cases were confirmed in the United States and six in Canada.

In Luxembourg, European Union Health Commissioner Andorra Vassiliou urged Europeans to postpone nonessential travel to the United States and Mexico "unless it is very urgent for them."

The EU health commissioner only makes recommendations to the 27 member countries; they must make a final decision to set travel advisories through their foreign ministries.

A top German holiday tour operator said it was suspending charter flights to Mexico City.

"These are early days. It's quite clear that there is a potential for this virus to become a pandemic and...Read article here

[pinknic38]

there are cases in Ohio AND California here in the US... I'm not coming out of the house.

[maracle]

On another site I visit a lot there's a mathematician/scientist who models how various things affect national and international societies....does a lot of consulting for governments, the UN, etc. He posted this which I think is pretty interesting:

I'm sure almost everyone is now aware that we have an outbreak of swine flu going on right now, all over North America. The Department of Homeland Security has just declared a "public health emergency", and all of the 24-hour cable news channels are covering this like there is no tomorrow.

In fact there will be a tomorrow, I am happy to report. Here are some facts, quasi-facts, and opinions:

1. The genetic structure of this version of the swine flu has never been seen before, and there is no immunity to it anywhere in the world. It is extremely contagious, and so can be confidently expected to become a global pandemic, either this summer or next winter at the latest. The only question is what its mortality rate will be. On this the evidence to date is contradictory.

2. Based on US and Canadian cases, this type of swine flu appears to be rather mild for an influenza virus. To date there are no known fatalities, anywhere in the USA or Canada. There are 103 reported deaths in Mexico, of which 20 were young adults who died of pneumonia-like symptoms. It is these 20 cases that are cause for a red alert among epidemiologists, because it was just this kind of secondary pneumonia that killed so many millions of young adults during the "Spanish" flu pandemic of 1918-19. This is either a false alarm, or evidence of a mutation local to Mexico. At this moment no one knows which.

3. It's important to understand that this swine flu is ***NOT*** the same as the avian influenza which has received so much attention over the last five years. This swine flu is a mild form in the H1N1 family of viruses; the avian influenza is an extremely severe form in the H5N1 family. To date the avian influenza does not thrive in humans and is hardly contagious at all. Eventually the avian influenza may mutate into a human form. If and when it does, it will ignite a global pandemic potentially capable of killing hundreds of millions of people. To repeat, this swine flu is NOT avian influenza. It is a different and apparently much milder virus.

4. When the swine flu hits your city, then it will be prudent to avoid crowded areas and to wash your hands frequently (ten times a day, at a minimum). Face masks are useful for slowing down the transmission rate of the disease. Shop carefully, avoiding crowds. Do not go anywhere near anyone who is coughing. Keep your children home from school, and teach them the rudiments of infection control. If think you might be getting sick, you may be better of staying at home -- in a full-scale epidemic hospitals and clinics will become foci of infection, more dangerous than helpful.

5. Influenza is a virus, not a bacterium. That means that antibiotics are completely ineffective against it. There are many people who believe otherwise, but this is an illusion brought about by the well-known placebo effect. There are certain anti-viral drugs that can help to shorten an influenza illness. As this epidemic proceeds we will learn which ones are effective against this particular influenza. Anne Schuchat, director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said that it appears that the virus is resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, but susceptible to oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza).

Finally, by amazing coincidence I have only just last week submitted a proposal to the National Institutes of Health for a new and potentially revolutionary method of epidemic tracking and forecasting, using forms of the Kalman filter that we developed here at UC Denver for weather and wildfire forecasting with spatial stochastic models. When I first broached this idea I had been thinking of the approaching pandemic of avian influenza, not swine influenza, but serendipity seems to have been on my side. One could wish for better global circumstances, but I am allowing myself some small modicum of happiness about the timing.

Loren

Here's his website: Loren Cobb - Aetheling Consultants

It looks like there's a sinificant outbreak in NYC right now, 20 cases and in that city I bet it's really hard to contain...

[double.exposed]

I don't know, in some senses it certainly worries me, but in other senses, I get the feeling that it's not worth worrying about too hard. I'm perhaps lucky since I live far from Mexico, and don't get out of the house much, hah! That said, I'm considering bringing a surgical mask to classes these days... :P

[travelpunk]

^Good info, there. Thanks! This makes me wonder if I had this swine flu thing about a week and a half ago. Excrutiating stomach craps, fever, dizziness, for 4 days....Or, it could've been a bad case of gas....

[pinknic38]

I think the swine flu is more respiratory than stomach related, from what I've read anyway.

Here's an interesting analysis of the mortality rate of the strand in Mexico:

The mortality in Mexico is shockingly high: 81 cases out of 1300, or about 6%. The great Spanish Flu pandemic, on the other hand, had a mortality of about 2.5%. Normal rates for flu are less than a tenth of 1%, with most of those deaths occurring in people who are already weak: children, the elderly, the immunocompromised. The Spanish Flu hit hardest the 15-34 age group, who seem to have been done in by their own strong immune response. It's not clear which pattern this flu follows.

...this seems more worrying than SARS was, and SARS was pretty worrying. And if it gets much bigger, it will deal a heavy blow to an already struggling world economy, because this will have deep impacts on global trade flows.

got that from Andrew Sullivan's blog

[maracle]

yes, it's a respiratory thing...like pneumonia...

I read elsewhere that the main thing is to get proper treatment, and the deaths are usually essentially due to suffocation from mucus. Someone was recommending people read up on how self treatment for cystic fibrosis is done, basically pounding on the persons back near the lungs to loosen everything up and then there's a technique for coughing it all up. Gross but not a bad thing to know if you got infected I suppose.

[pinknic38]

google map of all the swine flu outbreaks int he world...

H1N1 Swine Flu - Google Maps

[travelpunk]

Originally Posted by pinknic38

I think the swine flu is more respiratory than stomach related, from what I've read anyway.

Here's an interesting analysis of the mortality rate of the strand in Mexico:



got that from Andrew Sullivan's blog

Originally Posted by maracle

yes, it's a respiratory thing...like pneumonia...

I read elsewhere that the main thing is to get proper treatment, and the deaths are usually essentially due to suffocation from mucus. Someone was recommending people read up on how self treatment for cystic fibrosis is done, basically pounding on the persons back near the lungs to loosen everything up and then there's a technique for coughing it all up. Gross but not a bad thing to know if you got infected I suppose.

Well that just goes to show you how much I understand the Spanish news!

[pinknic38]

Originally Posted by travelpunk

Well that just goes to show you how much I understand the Spanish news!

[Canadian Bacon]

The swine flu thing is seriously concerning me... I have always told everyone that I knew that in our livetime, we will see 4 major catastrophes converge:

-economic meltdown (happening)
-global pandemic (hopefully this is not it)
-another world war (will happen sooner or later)
-climate crisis (we are already seeing it)

These things will meet and one single time period, and while i don't think its the 'end of days', it will certainly be the end of our way of life and enough people will die.

This is why I want to get all my travelling done NOW =)

[pinknic38]

Originally Posted by Canadian Bacon

The swine flu thing is seriously concerning me... I have always told everyone that I knew that in our livetime, we will see 4 major catastrophes converge:

-economic meltdown (happening)
-global pandemic (hopefully this is not it)
-another world war (will happen sooner or later)
-climate crisis (we are already seeing it)

I definitely agree with you. No one is taking is seriously cos the Avian Flu was like this big farce as far as becoming the big pandemic... and while the cases are mild in the US/Canada and the people dying from them are in third world countries without the adequate medical facilities that we have the privilege of having access to, but it's medically a fact that virus strands can mutate and can get stronger (or weaker)... and once this transmits human to human it will be a different strand than what's being caught in Mexico, directly from the swine. And who knows how bad (or not so bad) it could be.

LOL It's like that one comedian on the "I Love the Millenium" on VH1 said when they were talking about the colored terror alert levels... she says "all I know is red means you need to get then gin, get the gun, and get the hell out"

:D

edit to say:

here are the new symptoms of the human-to-human one being transmitted now:
high fever, runny nose, sore throat, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.

NICE.

and then the lung issue comes later, when your body is trying to fight it:

Researchers do not know how the virus is jumping relatively easily from person to person, or why it's affecting society's healthiest demographic.


"When you think about the flu, the seasonal flu, the flu that we're accustomed to, it typically tends to have the worst ramifications in people that don't have developed immune systems -- the elderly and the very young. They can't fight it off," said Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN's chief medical correspondent.
"What's counterintuitive with this particular virus, it's in the people who have robust immune systems. As their body starts to respond, to try and fight off that virus, they produce tons of inflammatory cells. Those inflammatory cells can sort of flood the lungs.


"So, in essence, it's not the virus itself that's so problematic, but the body's reaction to it."

taken from Mexico City at epicenter of growing swine flu fears - CNN.com

[ScarlotteDorian]

I think things will be fine. I mean, even if it does spread and alot of us get it, as long as you take care of yourself, you're looking at just taking a blow by not being able to go to work for a little while. no one in the states has died yet and if it's targeted toward young adults, there isn't a threat of killing off children and elderly people who have weaker immune systems.

it hasn't hit Washington yet, but the map that pinknic posted shows that there are some cases in vancouver, Bc just two hours north of seattle. I guess it's just a matter of time.

[travelpunk]

I say we all just pack it up, head to the top of Mt Rainier, then come back down when this thing is over and done with.

F*ck! I love looking at that majestic mountain...

[mushroom22]

I'm flying from San Francisco to Philadelphia next week, then heading to NYC on a bus. Staying a few days in the city then flying back to San Francisco.

You guys have me all worried. Do I need to buy a mask?

[ScarlotteDorian]

haha. well, i think Rainier may get more traffic then some city streets in the summer months. I think every asshole wants to climb that thing. . . including me. :D

[xanthuos]

Originally Posted by mushroom22

I'm flying from San Francisco to Philadelphia next week, then heading to NYC on a bus. Staying a few days in the city then flying back to San Francisco.

You guys have me all worried. Do I need to buy a mask?

Do you wear a mask during regular flu season?

[mushroom22]

^^ Point taken, nerves calming...a bit.

[Canadian Bacon]

Looks like its getting worse:

The UN's World Health Organization has raised the alert over swine flu to level five - indicating human-to-human transmission in at least two countries. It is a "strong signal that a pandemic is imminent", the WHO says.
In Mexico, at the epicentre of the outbreak, people have been urged to stay at home over the next five days.

There are numerous cases elsewhere - the highest number outside Mexico in the US - and Europeans have been told it is certain there will be deaths.

...

In Europe, the director-general of health and consumer protection, Robert Madelin, said the continent was well prepared but nonetheless deaths from the disease were expected.

"It is not a question of whether people will die, but more a question of how many. Will it be hundreds, thousands or tens of thousands?", he said, speaking to Reuters news agency.

BBC NEWS | Americas | WHO fears pandemic is 'imminent'

OK, this is serious now. I have a trip planned with my girlfriend to go to Japan/HK in June... personally if this thing hits HK I am not going. Diseases in HK spread like a wildfire.

The question for the day is: should we be reconsidering our travel plans given the gravity of the situation??

[Canadian Bacon]

Originally Posted by xanthuos

Do you wear a mask during regular flu season?

Regular flus also do not kill you. Travel in confined spaces like buses and airplanes are especially dangerous... I'm going to buy a mask for such travel in the near future.